(Eagle News) — The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration has said La Niña, or the cold phase, has ended.
According to the weather bureau, most climate models predict El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, neither El Niño nor La Niña, will be “favored from March through June with an increased likelihood of a transition to El Niño (warm phase) thereafter.”
ENSO is a recurring climate pattern that involves changes in central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures.
In a neutral state, trade winds blow across the tropical Pacific Ocean, resulting in warm moist air and warm surface waters towards the Western Pacific.
The central Pacific Ocean, meanwhile, remains relatively cool.
According to PAGASA, however, La Niña’s “lag effect may still influence the probability of above-normal rainfall conditions in the coming months, potentially leading to adverse impacts in some highly vulnerable areas..”
“El Niño, on the other hand, increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could have negative effects (such as dry spells and droughts) in some areas of the country,” it added.