PHL COVID recoveries hit almost 1,000; DOH data show recoveries exceeding deaths daily for past 2 weeks

Courtesy DOH

(Eagle News) – The total patient recoveries in the country continued to increase far more than the COVID-19 deaths as recoveries reached almost a thousand, or 975 to be exact.

Forty-three patients recovered in the past 24 hours, according to the Department of Health while new deaths reached 19, bringing the total to 530.

This came about as total COVID-19 cases reached 7,958 as of 4 p.m., Tuesday, April 28.

-More patients recovering than succumbing to COVID-19 since April 13-

The trend for increasing recoveries more than deaths, with number of patient recovering from the disease per day being more than the reported number of deaths, started on April 13 when reported recoveries added to the tally were 45, which was significantly higher than the 18 additional deaths reported on that day.

DOH statistics on COVID-19 cases as of April 13, 2020. (Courtesy DOH)

And on April 15, for the first time, the total number of patients who recovered from the disease were more than the total number of virus-related deaths. Total recoveries listed then were 353 while total deaths were 349.

DOH statistics on COVID-19 cases as of April 15, 2020. (Courtesy DOH)

It was the first of many indications that the enhanced community quarantine in Luzon had been effective in curbing COVID-19 spread.

And based on an analysis of DOH released data, for more than two weeks straight, the number of patients recovering on a daily basis were more than the number of deaths. And mostly, even more than double the number of deaths reported daily.

A nurse (R) inserts a needle into the arm of a patient who has recovered from the COVID-19 coronavirus as he undergoes a procedure to donate plasma at a hospital in Manila on April 22, 2020. – Scientists have pointed to the potential benefits of plasma — a blood fluid — from recovered individuals who have developed antibodies to the COVID-19 coronavirus enabling the body’s defences to attack it. (Photo by Maria TAN / AFP)

-70 recoveries noted daily for two straight days-

The most significant numbers of increasing recoveries were noted on April 26 and 27.

On those two days, the number of patients who recovered from COVID-19 for a day were 10 times and seven times more than the number of recorded deaths in a day respectively.

On Sunday, April 26, there were only seven (7) new deaths recorded for the day while patient recoveries recorded reached 70, the highest number of recoveries for a day. Total deaths then were 501 while total recoveries were 862.

DOH statistics on COVID-19 cases as of Sunday, April 26, 2020. (Courtesy DOH)

On Monday, April 27, the patient recoveries for the day reached 70 again bringing the total then to 932, the first time it breached the 900 mark.

Deaths recorded for the day were only 10, which means that recoveries were seven times more than number of deaths.

DOH statistics on COVID-19 cases as of Monday, April 27, 2020. (Courtesy DOH)

These markers again affirmed data that the ECQ was curbing COVID-19 transmission, as mass testing nationwide was strengthened.

-COVID-19 recoveries most likely to breach 1,000 by April 29-

By tomorrow, Wedensday, April 29, based on current trends, the total number of patients recovering from COVID-19 could exceed 1,000.

The government now hopes to have a decreased trend in COVID-cases. They have already noted that case doubling rate has slowed down. From the previous three days to five days or more, according to the Department of Health.

-Next challenge, further slowing case doubling rate-

As President Rodrigo Duterte extended the ECQ in high risk COVID-19 areas, and placed more areas in Visayas and Mindanao under ECQ until May 15, the Philippine government hopes to further slow the case doubling rate until it finally flattens the curve.

President Rodrigo Duterte addresses the Filipino nation once more on Monday night, April 27, 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic. (Screenshot of RTVM/PCOO video/Courtesy RTVM/PCOO)

The general community quarantine (GCQ), the new normal for most of the country — for those not under ECQ — would also start on Friday, May 1, further expanding restrictive measures nationwide with strict physical distancing and hygiene and sanitation measures.

The Philippine government is also employing the strategy of increasing mass testing for COVID-19 nationwide, while isolating suspected and probable cases early on, and doing aggressive contract tracing.  It has already started experimental treatment for patients who gave their consent.  The Philippines is among the countries which joined the World Health Organization’s Solidarity Trial in hopes of finding a cure for the disease.  At least two hospitals have started convalescent plasma therapy for COVID-19 patients who consent to this treatment.

And President Duterte has also increased his reward to P50 million for Filipinos who can succeed in developing a vaccine against COVID-19, while also baring a P20 million reward for anyone who can develop the country’s own ventilator so that the Philippines will be able to manufacture its own to supplement hospital needs as the nation flexes its muscle against COVID-19.

An earlier study by the University of the Philippines (UP) looking into the effectivity of the Philippine government’s Luzon-wide ECQ published on April 13 had predicted 9,000 to 44,000 cases in the country by April 30, based on the trends then in early April.

“Based on these trends, one can estimate about 9,000 to 44,000* possible cases reported by the end of April 2020. In general, this indicates the relative success of the ECQ–along with other interventions–in containing the spread of the virus,” the UP team’s study said.

The UP COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team “looked into the best available data” to help the national and local government officials “to make informed decisions whether to extend, lift or relax available community quarantine.”

Their study was entitled “Policy Note No. 2 Modified Community Quarantine beyond April 30: Analysis and Recommendations” showed that the ECQ along with the other interventions had slowed down the spread of the virus.

(Eagle News Service)