Predicts COVID-19 cases could reach 9,000 to 44,000 by April 30
(Eagle News) – A team from the University of the Philippines looking into the effectivity of the Philippine government’s Luzon-wide enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) said that the policy has been effective so far in delaying the doubling time of COVID-19 cases in the country.
The UP COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team “looked into the best available data” to help the national and local government officials “to make informed decisions whether to extend, lift or relax available community quarantine.”
One of the results of their study entitled “Policy Note No. 2 Modified Community Quarantine beyond April 30: Analysis and Recommendations” showed that the ECQ along with the other interventions had slowed down the spread of the virus.
“Time-series analysis shows it now takes a little longer for the number of confirmed cases to double in number. What took 3 days for the total number of cases to double now takes about 6 days to happen,” the UP COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team said in its study.
The team citing its research on the trends on the rise of COVID-19 cases projected that possible cases could rise to up to 44,000 by the end of April.
The number includes the possible confirmed cases and does not include undetected, asymptomatic and mild cases.
“Based on these trends, one can estimate about 9,000 to 44,000* possible cases reported by the end of April 2020. In general, this indicates the relative success of the ECQ–along with other interventions–in containing the spread of the virus,” it said.
-COVID-19 case fatality rate at 5.38%; low reproduction number cited-
The UP team also said cited the estimated case fatality rate of 5.38% and a reproduction number of 0.6398 which meant that the ECQ has been effective.
“The goal is to keep bringing the reproductive number down to lower than 1 through continued medical and non-medical interventions,” it said in its analysis.
The UP team also noted that quantifying the effectiveness of the ECQ “is highly dependent on efforts in discovering new cases.”
“Specifically, there are situations in which countries were able to bring their reproduction numbers down close to 1, but later testing pulled the number up, such as the case of Singapore. In the case of Korea, consistent increased testing coupled with contact tracing facilitated the detection and management of the epidemic, lowering the reproduction number of COVID-19,” it said.
But the UP team studying the ECQ acknowledged that while this has been effective in delaying the doubling of cases, it cannot be sustained for a long time due to effects on the economy.
-Graduated ECQ activation after April 30-
It, instead, suggested the “graduated activation of ECQ” after April 30 based on level of risk in certain areas.
“Successful as it may seem, an ECQ covering a wide area may not be sustainable over the long run. Prolonged restriction on the movement of goods and services over a large area (i.e. region-wide) can unnecessarily paralyze local economies,” the UP study said.
“In light of this reality, our best recourse after April 30 is to implement graduated activation of ECQ depending on the level of risk in certain areas at a given time,” it noted.
As of April 13, the number of COVID-19 cases in the country had breached 5,000, reaching 5,223 with total fatalities of 335. Total patient recoveries, on the other hand, reached 295. This number does not include the cases who recovered while under isolation at home, according to the Department of Health (DOH).
(Eagle News Service)
