British Prime Minister Theresa May will make a major statement to parliament on Tuesday, just hours after MPs enabled her to start the withdrawal process from the European Union. / AFP PHOTO / PRU AND AFP PHOTO / HO
by Dario THUBURN
Agence France-Presse
LONDON, United Kingdom – Scotland’s plans for a second independence referendum have wrong-footed Prime Minister Theresa May, who could now be forced into giving the go-ahead for the vote — but only after Brexit.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s bombshell announcement on Monday came at the start of a week in which May had been expected to announce the start of the process for extracting Britain from the EU.
Downing Street then played down talk of an imminent statement on starting Brexit, which it said had always been planned for later in the month — but British newspapers were left in no doubt as to what had happened.
“Sturgeon ambushes May,” read a front-page headline in The Times, while The Guardian said: “May’s Brexit plan upstaged as Sturgeon seizes her moment.”
The Metro daily said: “Scots throw a sporran in the works” — a reference to a distinctive leather pouch worn in traditional Scottish Highland dress.
Commentators pointed out the irony that May will now be forced to argue at the same time against membership of one union — the European one — but in favour of another — the British one.
The referendum call “weakens Theresa May’s position because it could mean that if she pursues a hard Brexit that we end up with a constitutional crisis and possibly the break up of the United Kingdom itself,” said John Springford, director of research at the Centre for European Reform think-tank.
“She won’t want to be the prime minister who led to the UK no longer existing,” Springford said.
The European Commission said an independence referendum was a domestic matter for Britain but indicated that Scotland would have to reapply to join the European Union if it pulled out of the United Kingdom.
May faces another headache in Northern Ireland as she pushes ahead with what her critics have called “hard Brexit” — departure from Europe’s single market.
Irish nationalists Sinn Fein gained significant ground in elections in the British province earlier this month and on Monday called for a referendum “as soon as possible” on Northern Ireland leaving the UK and joining the Republic of Ireland.
‘Completely unacceptable’ timing
May has the power to block a Scottish referendum but experts said she would be unwise to do so since this could push public opinion in favour of independence.
But she could object to Sturgeon’s preferred timing of holding the vote by early 2019, before Britain actually leaves the European Union.
Sturgeon on Tuesday warned the British government that there should be no “blocking mechanisms” for her plans.
“It should be up to the Scottish parliament to determine the referendum’s timing, franchise and the question,” she said.
But Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, said the timetable “would force people to vote blind” as they would not yet know the terms of the Brexit deal.
A government source was quoted as saying in The Times newspaper: “The prime minister has said this would mean a vote while she was negotiating Brexit and I think that can be taken pretty clearly as a message that this timing is completely unacceptable.
“It would be irresponsible to agree to it and we won’t,” the source said.
Significant chance of independence
May on Monday said a Scottish independence vote would be “divisive and cause huge economic uncertainty” and would come at the “worst possible time”.
She is expected to give a more detailed answer next week after Sturgeon receives formal authorisation from the semi-autonomous Scottish parliament to apply for permission from the British government.
Scotland voted against independence by 55 percent to 45 percent in a 2014 referendum but Sturgeon argues that circumstances have changed completely since last year’s Brexit vote.
Some 62 percent of voters in Scotland backed Britain staying in the EU in the June referendum but across the whole UK, 52 percent voted in favour of Brexit.
The latest Scottish opinion polls indicate that support for remaining in the UK is going down, although still showing a small majority.
“It’s wide open,” Michael Keating, politics professor at the University of Aberdeen, told AFP.
Springford said: “I think there’s quite a significant chance of Scottish independence this time.”
