Rising COVID-19 cases outside NCR plus areas driving new increase in PHL Covid cases, says OCTA Research

But new COVID cases in Metro Manila decreasing

Courtesy OCTA Research


(Eagle News) – Rising COVID-19 cases outside Metro Manila is driving the renewed increase in virus cases in the country, according to OCTA Research.

This came about as the Department of Health (DOH) reported 32,744 new COVID-19 cases on Friday, January 21, with new COVID-19 deaths also rising to 156. This is the second straight day that new virus cases have increased.

Those who recovered were 16,385 roughly half of the new COVID-19 cases. This pushed the total COVID-19 recoveries to 3,012,156.

Because of this, total active cases reached 291,618 or 8.7 percent of total confirmed COVID-19 cases. There was an increase of 16,254 in the total number of COVID-19 cases, compared to the previous day’s total of 275,364.

While new COVID-19 numbers in Metro Manila are declining, those in the provinces are on the rise.

Dr. Guido David of Octa Research said in a tweet new cases outside the National Capital Region (NCR) plus areas “have been increasing from less than 4k on January 12 to almost 12k by January 20, a 200% increase in 8 days.”

“Today and over the next few days, I am expecting roughly the same range of new cases, about 29k to 33k total with a median of 31k. Although I am expecting new cases to decrease in the NCR (8 to 9k today), the increase outside NCR and Calabarzon will compensate for the decrease,” David said.

-New COVID-19 cases in NCR projected to go below 1k by mid-February-

The OCTA Research fellow also projects that new COVID-19 cases in the NCR would continue to go down and be less than 1,000 by mid-February, and decrease further to less than 500 by the end of that month.

Courtesy OCTA Research/Dr. Guido David

David said that the new virus cases reported by the DOH on Friday, January 21, at 32,744 were “within range of projections (29 to 33k).”

“Numbers are rising due to surge in provinces outside NCR,” he said in a tweet.

Based on the DOH data, most of the total active cases in the country are still mild at 277,833, while asymptomatic cases are 9.015. These numbers combined comprise 98.4 percent of total active COVID-19 cases.

All laboratories were operational on January 19, but three laboratories failed to submit COVID-19 data.

It was on Thursday, January 20, when new cases reached 31,173 that new COVID-19 cases again increased. This was after four straight days of declining new cases and after two days that new COVID-19 cases were below 30,000.

Before that, on Wednesday, January 19, new COVID-19 cases recorded in the country were only nearly 23,000. On Tuesday, January 18, new virus cases were 28,471.


(Eagle News Service)