NCR targets “very low risk classification” by March; aim is to have as low as 140 new cases per day

Courtesy OCTA Research


(Eagle News) — Metro Manila could be placed under a “very low risk classification” by next month, as reproduction numbers and health care utilization rates decrease, according to Octa Research.

Metro Manila or the National Capital Region “targets very low risk classification by March,” said OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David on Friday, February 11.

“The magic number to achieve very low risk classification is 140 new cases per day, which seems possible by March,” David said.

This had been achieved before.   In fact, Metro Manila “achieved very low risk classification in December 2021 before Omicron.”

But with the onset of Omicron, the numbers spiked.

Since February 8, however, the NCR has been averaging just 600 new Covid-19 cases per day, OCTA noted.

OCTA said that that daily numbers of Covid cases have in fact been beating the January 20 projections. Because of this, they revised the projections on January 24. These new projections have been “close to the actuals over the past few days.”

Currently, the reproduction number in the NCR decreased to 0.23 percent, and the average daily attack rate is at 6.55 per 100,000 of the population.

The positivity rate is 8.8 percent and the health care utilization is 28.6 percent.

The ICU utilization has also decreased to 30.8 percent.

David said that compliance with health protocols is advised to achieve the country’s targets.

(Eagle News Service)