DOH expecting further rise in COVID-19 cases, but says this won’t overwhelm PHL health system




 

(Eagle News) – The Department of Health said that it expects more COVID-19 cases in the coming days as lockdown protocols are eased and economic activity resumes.

But Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said that these cases can be handled by the country’s health care facilities as the government continues to monitor cases, and do more extensive contact tracing.

Vergeire, the DOH spokesperson, said that the department had also seen the rising number of cases outside Metro Manila recently after lockdowns have been eased.

Nakikta po natin ang pagdami ng mga kaso sa labas ng Metro Manila na tinututukan nap o ito ng ating pamahalaan upang mabigyang lunas ang pagkalat pa lalo nito,” she said.

A graph showing the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in the Philippines. (Courtesy DOH)

Vergeire also noted that COVID-19 deaths have been declining, and that the fatality rate in the country is near the ASEAN average of 2.94 percent, and below the global average of 5.22 percent.

The country’s COVID-19 fatality rate is at 3.73 percent.

The DOH also noted that COVID-19 cases have been generally on the decline, even though there were more cases that had been reported compared to last May.

A graph showing the national epidemic curve on COVID-19 confirmed cases (Courtesy DOH)

Makikita natin dito na bagaman tumataas ang bilang ng mga kaso sa ating bansa, ang pagtaas naman nito ay gradual at hindi biglaan. Ang ibig sabihin po nito ay nakakayanan ng ating current health system ang pagtaas ng mga kasong ito,” she said.

Vergeire also noted that the “national number of daily cases” has already stabilized.

She showed the national epidemic curve as of June 23 where cases are slowly declining.

Vergeire said that unlike in the first days of the local transmission, there are less infections.

She showed a graph on the country’s varying reproduction number.

A graph showing the COVID-19 reproduction number as of June 23, 2020. The number (represented by the green line) is now close to 1, which means for every COVID-19 case, one persons is infected. (Courtesy DOH)

This shows the number of secondary cases which were infected by a confirmed case.

Vergeire said that at the start of the pandemic, this number was 2 – meaning there were two persons being infected by one confirmed case.

But right now, she said this reproduction number is now getting close to 1.

Mas kaunti na ang nahahawa sa bawat isang tao,” she said.

Vergeire said that COVID-19 cases will however rise with the further opening up of the economy, and the relaxing of community restrictions. This is also the result of the country’s higher testing capacity.

But she said that the DOH is expecting that the rise in cases would not overwhelm the country’s health system.

Atin pong ini-expect na tataas pa rin ang mga kaso habang unti unti nating binubuksan ang ating ekonomiya, , bahagyang niluluwagan ang community restrictions, at patuloy na tumataas ang ating testing capacity, ngunit ang pagtaas ay hindi umaabot sa punto kung saan ma-o-overwhelm an gating health system,” she said.