China said on Wednesday (January 13) its exports for 2015 dropped 1.8 percent while imports dropped 13.2 percent in yuan-denominated terms, both much less than economists had expected but still likely consigning the economy to its weakest annual growth in 25 years.
“Exports decreased by 1.8 percent to 14.14 trillion yuan ($2.2 trillion). Imports dropped by 13.2 percent to 10.45 trillion yuan ($1.6 trillion). Trade surplus increased by 56.7 percent to 3.69 trillion yuan ($561 billion).” General Administration of Customs spokesman Huang Songping told media at a news conference in Beijing.
For December, China’s exports rose 2.3 percent from a year earlier in yuan-denominated terms, while imports dropped 4.0 percent.
In dollar-denominated terms, data from the General Administration of Customs showed exports in December fell 1.4 percent from a year earlier, much less than a Reuters poll forecast for an 8 percent drop and moderating from November’s 6.8 percent decline.
The data suggested that exports may be getting a boost from China’s decision to allow a sharp slide in the value of the yuan currency late last year, which has continued into 2016.
Imports fell 7.6 percent, receding for the 14th consecutive month but not as sharply as feared, possibly due to factories stocking up on cheaper crude oil, iron ore and other raw materials. China’s crude oil imports hit a record high.
Economists had forecast an 11.5 percent import slide, after an 8.7 percent drop in November.
The combination produced a $60.09 billion trade surplus for December, compared with economists’ expectations of $53 billion and November’s $54.1 billion.
China is expected to post its weakest economic growth since the global financial crisis in the fourth quarter, adding pressure on policymakers to take more steps to ward off a sharper slowdown that could jolt global markets.
Still, such a level would be the slowest pace of expansion in a quarter of a century, and down from 7.3 percent in 2014 as weak demand at home and abroad, industrial overcapacity and faltering investment drag on the world’s second-largest economy.
Some China watchers believe real growth levels are already much weaker than official data suggest, reinforcing expectations that the government will have to roll out more stimulus measures this year to avoid a hard landing for the economy.
China’s economy likely grew by around 7 percent in 2015, in line with the government’s official target, the top economic planning agency said on Tuesday (January 12).
China will release fourth-quarter and full-year 2015 economic growth data on Jan. 19. (Reuters)
