Says overwhelmed hospitals have to recover first, COVID reproduction number has to go below 1; 3rd week of ECQ and MECQ are options for step-down exit strategy
(Eagle News) – The OCTA Research group is recommending a gradual easing of restrictions after the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) extension that would be based on data on the ground after the 1-week additional ECQ in the Greater Metro Manila area or the so-called NCR plus.
The research fellows of OCTA Research noted that the gains of the ECQ could be sacrificed if there is a premature easing of restrictions, and recommended a gradual easing of community quarantine protocols after the one-week extension of the ECQ.
They are recommending a well-studied exit strategy that the government should follow and to ensure that the reproduction number of COVID-19 particularly in Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal is below 1 before these areas revert to a less restrictive quarantine protocol.
-OCTA: Consider a 3rd week of ECQ if reproduction no. does not go down-
“If the R (COVID reproduction number) does not drop dramatically in the next seven days national government has to be prepared to consider an additional third week of ECQ. So after the additional week let’s assess,” said Prof. Ranjit Rye, founder of OCTA Research Group said on Saturday, April 3.
OCTA Research is also recommending that the restrictions on mobility be in place until the hospital care capacity is no longer in the critical level.
Dr. Nicanor Austriaco, an OCTA Research Fellow from the University of Sto, Tomas, said that there has to be a step-down approach for protocols to allow for the hospitals, which are currently very much overhwhelmed especially in the NCR plus areas, to recover.
-Hospital to keep increasing occupancy this April-
Austriaco said that they also “anticipate that our hospitals will actually keep increasing in terms of occupancy, until the middle of April.”
He said that because the virus reproduction number (R0) is still above 1, they expect that the hospitals in the NCR plus bubble to still remain above 70 percent for the rest of April.
“And if we do not drop the R0, it will remain a critical levels for many weeks if not months,” he said.
He said that hospitals are not yet past the initial surge, and that many of the patients in the first month of the surge should first be able to get through the hospital system.
“Even though the ECQ was imposed on March 29, there is a significant delay for hospital occupancy because it takes time for people to get sick, and to get very sick, for them to enter the hospital,” he said.
OCTA Research fellow and founder Prof. Rye said that the national government should “establish an exit strategy” to sustain the gains sustained in the past weeks.
Our hospitals will be filled for the next two or three weeks, he said, so that the augmentation of hospital bed capacity.
-MECQ before going to GCQ recommended-
OCTA is recommending that the ECQ extension is followed by an MECQ or Modified ECQ, before going to a more liberal GCQ or General Community Quarantine.
“So a step-down approach so we can sustain the gains that we have achieved, and of course the sacrifices we have achieved over the last two weeks,” Prof. Rye said.
OCTA is also recommending getting doctors,nurses and other health workers from regions which are not too burdened with COVID-19 cases, and to transport them to Metro Manila and surrounding provinces which are overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients.
Rye said that the health workers should also be paid for their services, and that all the support be given to them. Isolation and quarantine facilities should also be increased for COVID-19 patients who are experiencing mild symptoms.
OCTA also agrees with the Department of Health in speeding up the vaccination against COVID-19 of health care workers.
The research group submitted their recommendations to the Philippine government on Saturday, just before the meeting of the Inter-Agency Task Force studying the COVID-19 situation in the country. After the IATF meeting, Malacanang on Saturday night, April 3, announced the IATF decision to extend ECQ for at least another week, or from April 5 until April 11.
(Eagle News Service)
