But OCTA notes 12 percent higher number of average daily COVID cases from Aug. 26 to Sept. 1 compared to previous week
(Eagle News) – The reproduction number of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila has “decreased to 1.39” which is below the critical level cutoff of 1.4, according to OCTA Research on Thursday, Sept. 2.
In its COVID-19 update, OCTA Research also predicted that the reproduction number in the National Capital Region (NCR) could even fall below 1 by the third week of September.
“The reproduction number in the NCR decreased to 1.39 (with an error range of +0.05) below the critical level cut-off of 1.4,” OCTA said.
“Based on the current trends, it is possible that the reproduction number in the NCR may decrease below 1 by the third week of September,” it said. “Until then, we should expect new cases to continue to increase, albeit at a slower growth rate.”
This was despite an observed higher number of average COVID-19 cases in the past week.
OCTA Research noted that Metro Manila or the NCR averaged at 4,637 new COVID cases per day from Aug. 26 to Sept. 1. This is still “12 percent higher than the previous week’s daily average,” it said.
The group also ranked cities in Metro Manila by its incidence rate or average daily attack rate (ADAR).
Pateros had the highest ADAR at 86.71 percent, with its hospital beds at 100 percent occupancy. Next was San Juan with 72.45 percent ADAR with 100 percent ICU bed occupancy; followed by Makati with 57.45 percent ADAR and 76 percent hospital bed occupancy and 73 percent ICU bed occupancy.
Next to these cities in terms of ADAR are Navotas, Taguig, Muntinlupa, Pasig, Paranaque, Pasay, Malabon, Mandaluyong, Las Pinas, Valenzuela and Manila which are all considered under critical level ADAR.
Caloocan, Quezon City and Marikina were the only cities below 25 percent ADAR or at “high incidence” level.
Meanwhile, OCTA Research also identified six cities which had their COVID-19 reproduction numbers decreasing to below critical. These are Quezon City, Manila, Valenzuela, Pasay, Las Pinas and Caloocan.
Four cities had critical ICU bed occupancy. These are San Juan, Marikina and Las Pinas which have fully occupied ICU beds, and Muntinlupa with 92 percent ICU bed occupancy.
The reproduction number in the NCR was at a high of 1.76 percent on Aug. 12.
Over-all, the ICU bed occupancy in Metro Manila is at a high level of 71 percent, while the hospital bed occupancy is at 69 percent. The average daily attack rate (ADAR) in the whole of NCR is still at a critical level of 33.20 percent.
(Eagle News Service)